Crops notes March 2008

Only two years ago many farmers were convinced they would soon be witnessing the demise of cereal growing in N. Ireland, due to low prices and even lower returns on investment. Today the cereal sector is advancing with an air of optimism and enthusiasm that hasn’t been evident since the mid-nineties. Soaring grain prices last autumn led to an increase in winter cereal acreage of approximately 15 percent. Although this is a significant increase, spring plantings could be up much more, as many farmers plough up grassland to grow spring barley which is traditionally the largest cereal crop N. Ireland.

The promise of a price bonanza for cereal growers might indeed come to fruition but this should be tempered by a look at other factors which may limit overall profitability. Is there a ready market for your grain? Can you dry and store the resulting harvest? If the answer is yes; then you’ll be able to make the most of price fluctuations rather than taking a much lower price for moist grain “off-the-combine”. Fertiliser prices have risen considerably thanks to a global shortage and $100 per barrel oil prices. This will make the average spring barley crop about £50 per hectare more expensive to grow. Some farmers may be tempted to cut back on nitrogen inputs as a consequence, but this option shouldn’t be explored, as well timed nitrogen applications still pay for themselves four or five times over. While straw has proved a valuable addition to cereal profitability in the last few years this by-product may not be as valuable this year if there is a large increase in spring barley acreage, as seems likely. Even though these factors may limit returns, to some extent, the short, medium and long term prospects for cereal prices look fairly attractive as world demand for grain looks set to increase, both for food and biofuel production.

Since last autumn I have received an unprecedented level of requests for technical information about cereal growing, from farmers who haven’t grown them for many years or those tempted to drill a crop for the first time. Indeed, new Cereal Challenge Groups have had there numbers swollen with such farmers. Grain growing is beginning to reach new areas of the country that haven’t seen any activity in this sector for more than a generation. Nowhere is a better example of this than Fermanagh, where some farmers are growing both winter and spring cereals as an alternative to grassland.

Charlie Moore farms 170 hectares just north of Enniskillen. Most of the land is situated on heavy loam soil over limestone. Up to last year he had grown undersown barley and some spring, wholecrop wheat, with encouraging results. Last autumn he took the plunge and drilled winter wheat for the first time, which he intends to cut with a recently acquired combine harvester. This is needed, as there are no cereal contractors in Fermanagh!  Charlie has diversified into cereals because he reckons the economics look better than beef production for the foreseeable future. He plans to crimp the harvested grain and sell the straw locally where there should still be a good market for it, as haulage costs make imported straw more expensive. As with many other growers, a major concern for Charlie is in minimising lodging, as the wetter Fermanagh climate would make harvesting a lying crop more problematic than further east. Disease levels are also higher in the Lakelands so a “belts and braces” approach to disease control will figure highly in his plans for producing high yielding crops.

Charlie Moore inspects his Enniskillen winter wheat crop for early signs of disease